Following the local election results over the weekend, we now find ourselves facing a local political landscape that is more fragmented than ever, with historic losses for the two main parties. This appears to signal a decisive shift away from two party dominance, with a patchwork of smaller parties each commanding meaningful levels of electoral support.
Alongside significant gains for Reform across England, there were also gains for the Greens and the Liberal Democrats. Mayoral contests in London saw a mixed picture, with Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives holding key mayoralties, alongside breakthroughs for the Greens, who won in Hackney and Lewisham, and continued success for the independent Aspire party in Tower Hamlets, again highlighting the broader fragmentation of local politics.
Alongside the story of losses and gains, however, another notable element of the local election results has been the high number of councils emerging as ‘No Overall Control’. It seems likely that in these areas we can expect it will take some time for the political leadership arrangements and discussions about which elements of parties’ manifestos are adopted to be completed. This may make decision making processes more complex and time-consuming at a local level; priorities and policy adoption could take longer to play out, and it may be harder to secure agreement within the council.
For adult social care, we anticipate that the overall impact will be an increase in uncertainty in many areas of commissioning, funding, policy and practice. Many councils with social care responsibilities will see changes in leadership, and where many new councillors have been elected, relationships with local sector partners, including care providers, will need to be developed. It also seems likely that a significant number of new councillors and decision makers will have limited experience of either local government or social care, possibly creating further capacity and leadership challenges, especially around local commissioning approaches, funding decisions, and strategic direction.
For many new councillors, who may have heard little about social care when campaigning and out on the doorstep, the dominance of social care issues in their in-tray may come as a surprise. They may be shocked to learn that more than half of local government expenditure is typically being spent on social care.
This potential knowledge deficit creates both a challenge and an opportunity for the social care sector: while many new local politicians may be inexperienced in social care, they could also be receptive to receiving information and advice, and may welcome positive approaches (at both national and local level) from expert advocates on behalf of the social care sector.
Looking beyond England, both Scotland and Wales have also experienced historic election results, with Labour losing control in the Welsh Senedd for the first time in 27 years (with Plaid Cymru gaining 43 seats), and the SNP taking a majority of seats in the Scottish Parliament. Again, these changes will have implications for those NCF members who operate care services in Scotland and Wales.
Nationally, uncertainty continues. At the time of writing, Keir Starmer is facing growing pressure from many within his own party to stand down or at least to set out a timetable for his departure but appears determined to hold on for now. There are several possible outcomes, which may lead to changes at national cabinet level – this could have implications for adult social care policy direction, and therefore for NCF members.
Wednesday 13th May will see the King’s Speech, which is likely to introduce new health legislation providing the statutory basis for abolishing NHS England, merging its functions into the DHSC, as well as bringing in legislation for the 10 Year Health Plan. Other relevant developments for social care providers are likely to include the SEND Reform Bill (with the public consultation closing on 18th May), and possible changes to procurement law.
NCF will bring members more news and analysis on the King’s Speech in the coming days and will be keeping a close eye on the wider political landscape, especially on the implications for our not-for-profit members and adult social care providers more widely.
